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Aleksei Lebedev
Exan13
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Poker Probabilities — Tables iyo hand odds

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25.05.21
50 min de lecture
Poker Probabilities — Tables iyo hand odds

Waxaa la turjumay iyada oo la kaashanayo AI. Waxaan ka cudur daaraneynaa wixii qalad ah waxaanan u mahadcelineynaa caawimadaada si aad u saxdo.

Fikradda suurtagalka ah waxay noo oggolaaneysaa inaan qiyaasno inta jeer ee dhacdo ay ku dhici doonto ciyaarta, tusaale ahaan, si loo go 'aamiyo fursadda lagu ururinayo isku-darka gaarka ah ee mid kasta oo ka mid ah wareegyada dalabyada. Suurtagalnimada waxaa lagu muujiyaa boqolkiiba 0% ilaa 100%, tiro ka mid ah 0 ilaa 1 (tusaale ahaan, 0.33), ama saamiga wanaagsan ee natiijooyinka aan fiicnayn (1 ilaa 2 ama 1:2).  

Go 'aanso inta jeer ee aad heli doonto preflop jeebka aces.

Waxaa jira 4 aces oo ku jira 52-card deck.
Suurtagalnimada in kan ugu horreeya ee labada kaararka jeebka uu noqon doono ace waa 4/52. Suurtagalnimada in kaarka labaad uu sidoo kale noqon doono ace waa 3/51 (3 waa imisa aces ayaa ku hadhay deck ka dib markii aad hesho ace ugu horeysay; 51 waa imisa kaararka ayaa ku hadhay deck). Si aad u hesho lammaane aces ah, labadaba dhacdooyinkan waa inay dhacaan, sidaa darteed isku dhufo 4/52 iyo 3/51 oo aad hesho 0.45%. Celcelis ahaan, waxaad heli doontaa isku darka bilowga ugu fiican mid ka mid ah 222 hands. Isla mar ahaantaana, fursadda helitaanka hand kasta oo bilowga ah ayaa la go 'aamin karaa. Suurtagalnimada helitaanka isku-darka kala duwan ee preflop waxaa lagu soo bandhigay miiska hoose. 

PreflopSuurtagalnimada
Jeebka Aces clubs-acehearts-ace0.45%
Pocket Aces clubs-acehearts-ace ama Kings spades-kingdiamonds-king0.90%
Lammaane kasta oo jeebka ah5.90%
Ace king suited clubs-aceclubs-king0.30%
Ace king offsuited spades-acehearts-king0.90%
Ace king any ah ah1.20%
Laba kaar oo kasta oo ku suited24.00%
Suited connectors clubs-fiveclubs-six, hearts-jackhearts-queen2.17%

Fikradda suurtagalka ah ayaa sidoo kale noo oggolaaneysa inaan qiimeyno sida xooggan ee our preflop hand waa qaraabo ciyaartoyda kale. 

  • Tusaale ahaan, fursadaha in оpponents our miiska leeyihiin ugu yaraan hal jeebka lammaane ka weyn marka aad leedahay lammaane jeebka in aad hands waxaa lagu ururiyaa miiska hoose. 
Our
hand
1
 ciyaaryahan
2
 ciyaaryahan
3
 ciyaaryahan
4
 ciyaaryahan
5
 ciyaaryahan
6
 ciyaaryahan
7
 ciyaaryahan
8
 ciyaaryahan
Suurtagalnimada hal lamaane oo waaweyn (in %) vs.
clubs-kingspades-king0.490.981.471.962.442.933.423.91
clubs-queenspades-queen0.981.952.923.884.845.796.737.66
clubs-jackspades-jack1.472.924.365.777.178.569.9211.27
clubs-tenspades-ten1.963.895.787.649.4611.2412.9914.7
clubs-ninehearts-nine2.454.847.189.4611.6813.8415.9317.95
clubs-eighthearts-eight2.945.88.5711.2513.8416.3418.7321.01
clubs-sevenhearts-seven3.436.749.9413.0115.9518.7421.3823.87
clubs-sixhearts-six3.927.6911.314.7317.9921.0423.8926.51
clubs-fivehearts-five4.418.6212.6316.4219.9623.2426.2328.92
clubs-fourhearts-four4.99.5613.9518.0621.8625.3228.4131.09
clubs-threehearts-three5.3910.4815.2619.6723.727.2930.433
clubs-twohearts-two5.8811.4116.5421.24 25.4629.1432.2234.64

Fursadaha ah in flop (flop), turn ama river (river) ma sii dayn doonaa overcards in our jeebka lammaane waxaa hoos lagu soo bandhigay. Suurtagalnimada on the turn waxaa loo wakiishay sida suurtogalnimada "in turn" - waayo, 4 kaararka, iyo " in river (river)" - waayo, 5 kaararka, siday u kala horreeyaan.

Our hand

No overcards on flop (flop)

No overcards on turn ah ah ah

No overcards on river (webiga)

(Suurtagalnimada %)

clubs-kingspades-king

77.45

70.86

64.7

clubs-queenspades-queen

58.57

48.6

40.15

clubs-jackspades-jack

43.04

32.05

23.69

clubs-tenspades-ten

30.53

20.14

13.13

clubs-ninehearts-nine

20.71

11.9

6.73

clubs-eighthearts-eight

13.27

6.49

3.1

clubs-sevenhearts-seven

7.86

3.18

1.24

clubs-sixhearts-six

4.16

1.33

0.4

clubs-fivehearts-five

1.86

0.43

0.09

clubs-fourhearts-four

0.61

0.09

0.01

clubs-threehearts-three

0.1

0.01

<0.01

Suurtagalnimada soo socda under si toos ah dominate la AX hands (ama AK in AK) ka dhanka ah tiro ka mid ah ciyaartoyda naga dambeeya

Our hand

1 ciyaaryahan

2 ciyaaryahan

3 ciyaaryahan

4 ciyaaryahan

5 ciyaaryahan

6 ciyaaryahan

7 ciyaaryahan

8 ciyaaryahan

Suurtagalnimada dominate toos ah

clubs-ace hearts-king

0.24

0.49

0.73

0.98

1.22

1.46

1.7

1.94

clubs-ace hearts-queen

1.22

2.43

3.63

4.81

5.97

7.13

8.26

9.39

clubs-ace hearts-jack

2.2

4.36

6.47

8.63

10.55

12.52

14.45

16.33

clubs-ace hearts-ten

3.18

6.27

9.25

12.14

14.94

17.65

20.27

22.81

clubs-ace hearts-nine

4.16

8.15

11.98

15.64

19.15

22.52

25.75

28.84

clubs-ace hearts-eight

5.14

10.02

14.65

19.04

23.2

27.15

30.9

34.45

clubs-ace hearts-seven

6.12

11.87

17.27

22.33

27.09

31.55

35.74

39.67

clubs-ace hearts-six

7.1

13.7

19.83

25.52

30.61

35.73

40.29

44.53

clubs-ace hearts-five

8.08

15.51

22.34

28.62

34.38

39.69

44.56

49.04

clubs-ace hearts-four

9.06

17.3

24.79

31.61

37.81

43.44

48.57

53.23

clubs-ace hearts-three

10.04

19.07

27.2

34.51

41.08

47.00

52.32

57.11

clubs-ace hearts-two

11.02

20.83

29.55

37.31

44.22

50.37

55.84

60.71

Tirooyinkani waxay tilmaamayaan mucaaradka jagooyinka hore iyo kuwa dambe waxayna sharxayaan sababta ciyaarta qarsoodiga ah ee kiiskan loo caddeeyay xisaabta.

Si la mid ah, fursadaha isku-darka xoogagga kala duwan ee flop (flop) ayaa la go 'aamin karaa.

Flop (flop)

Suurtagalnimada

Lammaane

32.4%

Laba lamaane (kaararka aan la bixin)

2%

Set

11.80%

Toos

1.3%

Straight draw

10.50%

Flush

0.84%

Flush draw la laba kaar jeebka suited

10.9%

Full house la jeebka lammaane

0.70%

Daryeel lammaanaha jeebka

0.25% 

On flop (flop), waxaad sidoo kale u baahan tahay inaad ogaato waxa fursadaha waa in adiga ama оpponent aad hagaajin doonaa hand.

  • Tusaale ahaan: On preflop ah, ciyaaryahanka uu leeyahay hand hal-matted, iyo on flop (flop), laba kaar oo dheeraad ah oo isku suit muuqan

Si loo ururiyo flush, wuxuu u baahan yahay mid ka mid ah sagaal kaararka haray ee suit this on the turn ama river (river). Xaaladdan oo kale, ciyaaryahanka leeyahay sagaal outs si ay u ururiyaan malaha hand ugu fiican (a "outs" in terminology poker waa kaar kasta oo la doonayo oo xoojin doona hand iyo lead suurto gal ah in ay guul). Marka la eego boqolkiiba, fursadda ururinta flush on turn waa 19.1%, on river (river) (haddii turn ma caawin) - 19.6%. Suurtagalnimada ururinta flush on a turn ama river (river) waa 35%. Fursadaha kordhinta ee postflop, iyadoo ku xiran tirada outs, waxaa lagu muujiyaa miiska. 

Outs

Fursadda faa 'iidadalaga
helo flop (flop) si loo turn

Faa 'iidada laga helo
turn to river (river)

Faa 'iidadalaga
helo flop (flop) ilaa river (river)

2042.6%43.5%67.5%

19

40.4%

41.3%

65.0%

18

38.3%

39.1%

62.4%

17

36.2%

37.0%

59.8%

16

34.0%

34.8%

57.0%

15

31.9%

32.6%

54.1%

14

29.8%

30.4%

51.2%

13

27.7%

28.3%

48.1%

12

25.5%

26.1%

45.0%

11

23.4%

23.9%

41.7%

10

21.3%

21.7%

38.4%

9

19.1%

19.6%

35.0%

8

17.0%

17.4%

31.5%

7

14.9%

15.2%

27.8%

6

12.8%

13.0%

24.1%

5

10.6%

10.9%

20.3%

4

8.5%

8.7%

16.5%

3

6.4%

6.5%

12.5%

2

4.3%

4.3%

8.4%

1

2.1%

2.2%

4.3%

Looma baahna in la xusuusto dhammaan tirooyinka miiskaan. Marka aad leedahay draw in your hands, waxaad qiyaas ahaan qiyaasi kartaa fursadaha ururinta isku darka xoog leh isticmaalaya formula fudud - 1 outs for 1 street siinayaa 2% equity iyo 2 jidadka – 4% equity, siday u kala horreeyaan. Si fudud u tarma tirada outs laba haddii aad xisaabiso fursadaha hal street (laga bilaabo flop (flop) ilaa qodxan ama laga bilaabo qodxan ilaa river (river) ama afar – laga bilaabo flop (flop) ilaa river (river).

Tusaalooyinka xisaabinta hal street:

  • Flush draw (9 outs): 9 * 2 = 18%
  • Draw toosan (8 outs):  8 * 2 = 16%
  • Laba lamaane oo aad u baahan tahay inaad dhisto guri full house ah (4 outs): 4 * 2 = 8%

Isku dhufo aad outs by 4 marka aad оpponent tagaa all-in on flop (flop). 9 outs la flush draw ku siin 36%, taas oo aad ugu dhow in 35% fursadaha si ay u kordhiyaan turn iyo river (on flop), oo ku saabsan isku dar ah (flop) ka hooseeya, waxaa lagu soo bandhigay miisaska kala duwan.

Xaaladda

Suurtagalnimada
1 street

Suurtagalnimada tern + 
river (webiga)

Set loo quads

2.13%

4.26%

Jeebka lammaanaha si loo set

4.26%

8.42%

Lammaane ilaa laba lamaane

6.38%

12.49%

Gutshot

8.51%

16.47%

Mid ka mid ah lammaane ilaa laba lammaane ama thrips

10.64%

20.35%

Laba ka badan kaarka si ay u labanlaabaan

12.77%

24.14%

Set in guriga buuxa ama quads

14.89%

27.84%

Si toos ah draw in street

17.02%

31.45%

Flush draw si ay u flush

19.15%

34.97%

Gutshot iyo laba overcards si toos ah ama lammaane

21.23%

38.39%

Draw toosan iyo mid overcard si toos ah draw ama laba

23.40%

41.72%

Flush draw iyo hal overcard si ay u flash ama laba

25.53%

44.96%

Flush draw iyo gutshot si ay u flush ama toosan

27.66%

48.10%

Flush draw iyo laba overcards in flash ama laba

29.79%

51.16%

Straight draw iyo flush draw si toos ah ama flush

31.91%

54.12%

Toosan draw iyo flush draw la laba overcards

44.68%

69.94%

Fikradda suurtagalka ah waxay naga caawineysaa inaan qiyaasno sida ficil profitable noqon doono. Ogaanshaha suurtagalnimada poker kuu ogolaanayaa inaad adjust istiraatiijiyadda inta lagu jiro ciyaarta, ka dhigaysa filashooyinka natiijooyinka macquul ah iyo caawisaa si ay u ilaaliyaan xasiloonida shucuurta si ay u sii ciyaaro aad poker ugu fiican. 

Maqaallo dheeraad ah oo ku saabsan aasaaska xisaabta poker: Fikirka in safafku waa xirfad muhiim ah oo ciyaartoyda poker guuleysta, odds pot in poker ama sida loo xisaabiyo faa 'iidada go' aan ah, Waa maxay equity in poker, iyo sababta ay muhiim u tahay in la fahmo this?, foldity equity in poker iyo xisaabta bluff, The mabda 'a of bluffing. 

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